A Perfect Storm is Hitting Mining

Here’s the definition of a perfect storm:

In the last few days, while the decoupling of China<>US over the rare earths controversy was unfolding, every rare-earth stock in the West (literally a handful) was going ballistic. President Trump and Australia’s PM Albanese were signing a deal on critical minerals, and I found myself in Sydney at the opening of one of the largest Mining trade shows in the world (IMARC).



Unlocking the future of Mining – Report

Not coincidentally, on the same day, we presented our report “Unlocking the Future of Mining”,  a view of the state of the art of MiningTech, and, most importantly, where it should go. The report, done in collaboration with major industry organizations (Austmine and Hub de Innovación Minera del Perú) and with the support of BHP, includes the results of dozens of interviews with major mining experts and use cases.

At IMARC, the excitement of the industry’s veterans for being front and center of all the world’s news quickly turned into a sense of “inadequacy”.

Can an industry that hasn’t significantly changed itself in hundreds of years suddenly accelerate and overcome its structural conservatism and over-regulation?

Innovation has unexpectedly turned rare earths (and precious metals) from oblivion into new stars. Every new EV, F35 fighter jet, and particularly the new autonomous robots that will populate Earth before we know it, desperately need those once-obscure materials.

What’s bound to happen? History repeats. Big innovation waves produce ripple effects… that often provoke tsunamis.

The almost-forgotten Mining industry will be overtaken by a tsunami of innovation, most likely coming from outside innovators excited by its challenges and (potential) high rewards.

Here are a few Key Findings from our report:

  1. AI investment soars — from less than $200M in 2020 to $900M in 2025 (but still tiny compared to its strategic importance).
  2. Median deal sizes in Mining Tech startups nearly tripled to $8.7M (but should soon tenfold).
  3. Consolidation accelerates — 62% of all AI technology investment now occurs through M&A, as miners secure critical capabilities rather than building them internally (just brace for more).
  4. Early-stage startups capture only around 10% of total capital, as operators prefer consolidation, partnerships, and co-development to accelerate the industrialization of proven solutions (the wave hasn’t really started yet. Silicon Valley investors are just starting to sharpen their swords).
  5. Australia leads globally, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all AI for mining investment, far ahead of China (12%) and the US (9%)
    (my bet: prepare for a big awakening of Uncle Sam).

Prepare your surfboard: the tsunami is mounting…